naval forces operate across the open ocean and littoral (land, air, space, and cyberspace), all have myriad entry points from which capability surprises can originate. The mission domains such as air defense and undersea warfare, which U.S. Coast Guard.ĢSurprises may come over timescales ranging from seconds to minutes in a complex engagement, to the evolving, breakthrough surprise that might have been secretly developed over decades. Unless stated otherwise, these refer to the U.S. naval leadership.įrom a military operational context and for the purposes of this report, surprise is an event or capability that could affect the outcome of a mission orġThroughout this report, the terms “Navy,” “Marine Corps,” and “Coast Guard” are used. However, many efforts are already under way that could be leveraged to bring about an increase in preparedness against surprise through focus, culture, and U.S. naval forces in today’s evolving national security environment. 2 Anticipating and mitigating capability surprise may seem daunting for U.S. It has multiple dimensions, including time, mission, and cross-mission domains anticipation of enabling technologies physical phenomena and new tactics that may enable surprise. 1 Capability surprise is both inevitable and inherently complex. naval forces-the Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Coast Guard. In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the issues surrounding capability surprise, both operational and technical, facing U.S.

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